Sarah Kaye & Co Research
The headlines say Sydney is in a reckoning. We followed the same Northern Beaches homes through two sales to see what sellers really got this winter, which suburbs fell most, and what that means for spring.
If you own a home on the Northern Beaches, September’s newspapers will not have made comfortable reading. Sydney values are seven per cent off their February peak. Sydney’s auction clearance rate has spent most of winter near half, against almost four in five at this time last year. Some of that is true here. Some of it is not. This report sorts one from the other, suburb by suburb, using the one source nobody can massage.
That source is the register: the NSW Valuer General’s record of every settled sale in the state. It runs a few weeks behind the market, because a sale only appears once it has settled and been lodged. But it is the truth of what changed hands and for how much. It shows the Beaches running in two lanes this year, with flats holding their value while houses eased. This time we do something new with the register. We followed the same homes through two sales.
What winter’s sellers actually got
Here is the test. Take every home in our 38 suburbs, Manly to Palm Beach, that sold this winter. Keep only the ones that had also sold between eighteen months and five years earlier. That lets us compare two prices for the same home. Then drop anything that was not an ordinary sale between strangers. Drop anything resold inside eighteen months, which is usually a renovation flip. Drop anything with a gain so large it must have been rebuilt. What is left is about 6,200 clean pairs since 2012. It is the cleanest price test the register can give.
Last winter, the typical seller made 13 per cent on what they had paid. The winter before, 18 per cent. This winter, 3 per cent. About one in three sold for less than they paid. Houses carried the fall. Their typical gain went from 13 per cent to a small loss, and more than half the house sellers took a loss, against about one in five a year ago. Flats held up better. Their gain fell from 13 per cent to 5, and one in four sold at a loss.
The turn came later here than on the North Shore, and it is still going. In the March quarter, sellers were still making 13 per cent, much as they had through 2025. In the June quarter the typical gain fell to 8 per cent. July and August so far read about 2 per cent, with two in five selling at a loss, on 31 sales. That is after the first two rate rises and the May Budget.
Winter also traded a little thin. Comparing identical windows, the 38 suburbs settled 397 sales this winter. The two winters before gave 424 and 457. That is a 10 per cent shortfall, the mildest of our three districts. House sales fell 15 per cent and flat sales only 6. Fewer houses sold, and the ones that did sold for no gain. That is the record spring starts from.
Who can afford to sell this spring
The same test tells you something the listings portals cannot: who is in a position to sell. Most owners here still can. Those who bought in 2022 or 2023 and sold this year came out 10 to 15 per cent ahead. Those who bought in 2021, as prices ran up, made about 8 per cent, but one in four sold at a loss. Those who bought in 2024 made about 6 per cent, and again one in four took a loss. For houses bought in 2024 it was one in three. Most people in that position will stay put unless a job, a baby or a separation forces the issue.
So expect a spring with fewer family houses for sale than the calendar suggests. Most will be sold by people who have owned for a while. That is not a forecast from a model. It is what the register says about the people who would have to do the selling.
The squeeze is in the middle
Now split the sellers by what they paid. Under $2.5 million, the typical gain eased from 15 per cent last year to 12 per cent this year. About one in seven sold at a loss. Over $4 million, the gain eased from 8 per cent to 7, though only 15 owners at that level have sold this year. In between, from $2.5 million to $4 million, the gain fell from 7 per cent to nothing. Nearly half sold at a loss, against one in five last year. Sales in that band were also down 24 per cent on a normal winter, the biggest fall of any band.
Cotality’s suburb figures point the same way. Cotality, which many readers will know as RP Data, publishes a monthly estimate of the median home value in each suburb. It is a model, not a sale, so we use it to add detail to the register rather than to replace it. On its reading the dearest end held. Manly, Fairlight and Balgowlah houses are within about one per cent of last year. The family suburbs below them fell most. Wheeler Heights is down 15 per cent, Collaroy 14, Belrose, Bayview and Terrey Hills 13, Narrabeen, Narraweena, Manly Vale and Collaroy Plateau 11 to 12, Dee Why and Newport about 11. Overall, house values held until February, then fell nine per cent by August. Flat values fell four per cent.
Selling times did not move the same way everywhere. Some suburbs slowed: Avalon Beach houses from 62 days to 75, Bayview from 80 to 92. Others sped up. The reason for the squeeze is simple. People can only pay what they can borrow, and three rate rises this year hit the family with the big mortgage first. The top end is quiet. The entry end, mostly flats, kept trading. And for perspective, house values here are still 26 to 70 per cent above August 2020.
House and unit prices by Northern Beaches suburb
The table below sets out three things for each suburb. First, the median sale price for houses and units over the year to August, from the register. Second, Cotality’s estimate of the median home value at August 2026, with its twelve-month change. Third, days on market. The two price columns differ on purpose. The median sale price is the middle of what actually sold. It moves with the mix: a year with more big blocks or beachfront homes sold looks dearer, even if no home rose. The Cotality value estimates what all homes in the suburb are worth. It moves with prices rather than with the mix, but it is a model and it revises. Where the two agree, trust the number. Where they differ, the gap usually tells you the mix changed.
House and unit prices by Northern Beaches suburb, spring 2026
| Suburb | House median sale, yr to Aug | House value, Aug 2026 | 12-mth change | House days on market | Unit median sale, yr to Aug | Unit value, Aug 2026 | 12-mth change | Unit days on market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manly | $5.03m | $4.83m | −0.7% | 68 | $2.02m | $1.84m | −1.1% | 34 |
| Clontarf | $6.00m* | $4.37m | −3.0% | 19 | – | – | – | – |
| Whale Beach | $7.85m* | $4.16m* | −2.9% | 38 | – | – | – | – |
| Palm Beach | $5.60m | $4.10m | −5.1% | 86 | – | – | – | – |
| Fairlight | $4.25m | $4.01m | +0.8% | 24 | $2.10m | $1.78m | −9.7% | 24 |
| Queenscliff | $4.01m* | $3.65m* | −8.6% | 29 | $1.32m | $1.31m | −5.3% | 25 |
| Curl Curl | $4.11m* | $3.56m | −7.9% | 40 | $1.82m* | $1.53m* | −9.4% | 28 |
| Seaforth | $3.74m | $3.52m | −5.5% | 57 | $2.42m* | $1.83m* | −14.6% | 36 |
| Freshwater | $4.06m | $3.48m | −8.9% | 35 | $1.20m | $1.20m | −4.9% | 16 |
| Balgowlah | $3.92m | $3.34m | −1.3% | 33 | $1.52m | $1.56m | −3.3% | 26 |
| North Manly | $3.48m | $3.22m | −6.2% | 32 | $1.14m* | $1.13m* | −1.2% | 11 |
| Collaroy | $3.79m | $3.12m | −13.7% | 70 | $1.26m | $1.24m | −1.4% | 27 |
| Narrabeen | $3.85m | $3.02m | −11.5% | 78 | $1.22m | $1.20m | −5.3% | 29 |
| Ingleside | $5.45m* | $2.96m* | +9.6% | 143 | – | – | – | – |
| Manly Vale | $2.78m | $2.80m | −11.7% | 14 | $1.05m | $1.06m | −3.9% | 21 |
| North Balgowlah | $3.36m | $2.78m | −7.8% | 18 | $1.29m* | – | – | – |
| Avalon Beach | $2.79m | $2.75m | −4.1% | 75 | $1.38m | $1.24m | −7.5% | 54 |
| Bayview | $3.30m | $2.74m | −12.5% | 92 | – | – | – | – |
| Collaroy Plateau | $2.80m | $2.70m | −11.1% | 34 | – | – | – | – |
| Brookvale | $2.62m* | $2.65m* | −1.2% | 60 | $1.06m | $1.13m | +0.9% | 18 |
| Killarney Heights | $2.79m | $2.60m | −4.3% | 35 | – | – | – | – |
| Newport | $3.10m | $2.59m | −10.5% | 52 | $1.32m | $1.24m | −5.3% | 42 |
| Dee Why | $2.58m | $2.56m | −10.6% | 36 | $1.09m | $1.04m | −2.3% | 24 |
| Allambie Heights | $2.60m | $2.48m | −4.5% | 28 | – | $1.31m* | −0.4% | 26 |
| Terrey Hills | $2.33m | $2.42m | −13.0% | 18 | – | – | – | – |
| Bilgola Plateau | $2.50m | $2.37m | −6.9% | 50 | – | – | – | – |
| Forestville | $2.57m | $2.36m | −4.7% | 45 | $1.60m* | $1.28m* | −1.6% | 30 |
| Warriewood | $2.42m | $2.25m | −7.0% | 35 | $1.56m | $1.41m | −6.6% | 45 |
| Cromer | $2.43m | $2.23m | −8.9% | 26 | $1.23m* | $1.08m | −11.7% | 27 |
| Elanora Heights | $2.57m | $2.21m | −4.8% | 43 | – | – | – | – |
| Davidson | $2.40m | $2.21m | −8.0% | 33 | – | – | – | – |
| Frenchs Forest | $2.48m | $2.19m | −6.5% | 27 | $1.35m* | $1.49m* | −13.5% | – |
| North Narrabeen | $2.29m | $2.17m | +0.3% | 43 | – | – | – | – |
| Wheeler Heights | $2.27m | $2.17m | −15.4% | 27 | $1.65m* | – | – | – |
| Belrose | $2.38m | $2.15m | −12.5% | 36 | $0.86m | $0.97m | −5.1% | 99 |
| Beacon Hill | $2.38m | $2.11m | −8.8% | 34 | – | – | – | – |
| Narraweena | $2.48m | $2.09m | −11.5% | 49 | $1.02m* | – | – | – |
| Scotland Island | $2.04m* | $1.82m* | −4.8% | 58 | – | – | – | – |
Median sale prices are from the register: arm’s-length residential sales of $400,000 and above, contracts September 2025 to August 2026. Values are Cotality’s monthly median value estimates at August 2026, with the change on August 2025. Days on market is Cotality’s rolling twelve-month median. * Fewer than 20 sales in the year: read as a direction, not a number. – Fewer than five sales (fewer than ten for Cotality unit values), or no reading. Suburbs are ordered by Cotality house value. Duffys Forest has a Cotality report but no sales in the register over the period and is omitted.
Two things stand out. First, the gap between the two columns. Across the 38 suburbs the register’s median house sale rose two per cent over the year, to $2.77 million, while Cotality has house values down nine. The register median moves with whichever homes happened to sell, and the mix can shift a long way in a year. That is why we lean on the resale test, which compares each home with itself, for the price verdict. Second, Manly and Fairlight, two of the dearest suburbs. Cotality has both flat on the year, and their register medians rose 7 and 13 per cent.
What we see at the door
As Northern Beaches buyers agents we spend most Saturdays at open homes, so here is a field note, and it is only that. At the entry end, one-bedroom flats in Manly, Fairlight, Freshwater and Queenscliff are very hard to find, and well contested when they appear. The register agrees. Flat sales in those four suburbs are down 12 per cent on last year, those under $1.2 million down 15, and they sell in two to five weeks. Houses under $2.5 million with good bones draw real competition too, and their prices held.
From $3 million to $5 million, outside the Manly pocket, there is plenty of choice. Cotality counts seven per cent more houses listed in those suburbs than a year ago, and winter sales in that band were down more than a third. Until a few weeks ago we were often the only buyers at an inspection. In the last fortnight more have come back. Above $10 million the peninsula splits. In Manly our buyers struggle to find stock and often pay a premium: the register’s median house sale there rose 7 per cent, to $5.03 million. At Palm Beach and Whale Beach there is more for sale than there are buyers. Palm Beach houses take 86 days to sell, the longest of the dearer suburbs. For a suburb-by-suburb guide, see our page on the Northern Beaches property market.
What the newspapers say, and what holds here
We read the same papers you do, and the Financial Review’s property coverage this month has been better than most. Four of its themes deserve a local check. First, that Sydney is down seven per cent from its peak. Cotality has Northern Beaches houses down about nine per cent since February, so broadly yes, though the register’s own median moved less. Second, that the top end is falling fastest: not here, except at Palm Beach, where buyers are thin. Manly, Fairlight and Balgowlah barely moved, and the pain sits in the family band below them. Third, that the affordable end is holding: true here, on both price and turnover, and led by flats. Fourth, that spring has opened thin, with buyers waiting on the Reserve Bank. The register cannot see that yet, though at open homes more buyers have come back in the last fortnight.
Spring so far, and spring’s test
The register cannot see spring yet. Homes that sold in the first half of September and had settled by the latest weekly update number between two and four in each of the past four years. The first proper reading arrives with the late October updates. The live signs say the season opened thin but not dead. Sydney’s clearance rate sat near 54 per cent in the third week of September as more homes went to auction. On the Beaches, family buyers tend to work to the school calendar, which is why spring usually matters here. The tell this year is whether family houses between $2.5 million and $4 million start selling again.
So here is spring’s test, on the record before the season can influence it. Winter’s sellers made 3 per cent and one in three took a loss. If spring’s sellers do better than that, on the same test with the same exclusions, the season worked. The first reading comes in November.
If you are hoping to upsize
The window is open. Your flat held its value through winter. The family house you want did not, and the register shows fewer rivals bidding for it. But a fourth rate rise is widely expected, and each one shrinks the loan that bridges the gap. The window is open, and the price of the ticket is rising. Do the borrowing sums first, then the house hunt.
If you are weighing a downsize
The trade runs against you. You would be selling a house into the softest part of this market and buying a flat that held its value. It can still be the right move for reasons no spreadsheet captures. The register says most sellers here are choosing realism rather than being forced into it. That is the right order. Price from day one for the market you are in, and have the purchase ready to go.
If you are buying your first home, or a unit
Do not expect spring to hand you a discount. Flats kept their value through winter, and flat sales barely fell. Unit sale prices have edged up from $1.25 million to $1.27 million over the year. Freshwater and Brookvale units still sell in two to three weeks, and one-bedders in the Manly pocket are hard to find at all. Where you do have an edge is on any flat that has sat for two months. Time is on your side there. Use it for due diligence, strata reports first, not just for negotiation.
Where this leaves us
Two markets on the Beaches, as on the Upper North Shore. The dearest end, from Manly to Balgowlah, held. Flats held. The squeeze sits in the family band from $2.5 million to $4 million, in suburbs like Collaroy, Belrose, Narrabeen and Dee Why, and it deepened through July and August. Winter is in the book. Spring is on the clock, with a rate decision attached. If you are weighing a move on the Northern Beaches this season, we are happy to talk it through against the numbers rather than the headlines. The Upper North Shore and Lower North Shore editions of this report carry the same test for their districts, and the three-district overview pulls the three together.
About the author
Mike Kaye is Co-Founder and Director of Sarah Kaye & Co., a director-led independent buyers’ agency for Sydney’s Northern Beaches, Upper North Shore, and Lower North Shore. A former Accenture Global Partner and Graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors (GAICD), with formal qualifications in property law, valuation, and economics, Mike advises clients on disciplined property acquisition, risk management, and long-term capital protection. This report is part of the Sarah Kaye & Co Research spring 2026 series.
Methodology and sources
Settled sales and resales: Sarah Kaye & Co Research analysis of NSW Valuer General Property Sales Information (Land Registry Services); 38 Northern Beaches suburbs, the suburbs for which Cotality reports were prepared (Allambie Heights, Avalon Beach, Balgowlah, Bayview, Beacon Hill, Belrose, Bilgola Plateau, Brookvale, Clontarf, Collaroy, Collaroy Plateau, Cromer, Curl Curl, Davidson, Dee Why, Elanora Heights, Fairlight, Forestville, Frenchs Forest, Freshwater, Ingleside, Killarney Heights, Manly, Manly Vale, Narrabeen, Narraweena, Newport, North Balgowlah, North Manly, North Narrabeen, Palm Beach, Queenscliff, Scotland Island, Seaforth, Terrey Hills, Warriewood, Whale Beach, Wheeler Heights; Duffys Forest has no register sales), as at the 21 September 2026 weekly release. Arm’s-length residential sales only (no low-value, bulk, commercial or non-standard transfers), $400,000 and above. Resale pairs match the same property across two consecutive sales: houses by the register’s property identifier, units by that identifier and the unit’s address, because every unit in a strata building shares one identifier. Holds under 18 months (possible flips), gains above 60 per cent (likely rebuilds) and non-round prices on either sale (possible related-party transfers) are excluded, leaving 6,225 pairs since 2012. Winter figures are contracts dated 1 June to 31 August of each year; the 2026 winter reading rests on 62 pairs (22 houses, 40 units) and the July and August reading on 31, so both are treated as directional. Winter sales counts are lag-matched: contracts 1 June to 31 August settled by 3 September of the same year, 2026 against 2024 and 2025. Sales above $10 million are contracts dated January to August and settled by 17 September of each year. Suburb values and days on market: Cotality (RP Data) suburb statistics reports prepared 24 September 2026; median values are Cotality’s monthly model estimates to August 2026 and are used as corroboration, not as the price source of record. The combined value change covers suburbs with 20 or more sales in the year, weighted by each suburb’s sales. Sydney-wide figures and clearance rates: Cotality Home Value Index (September 2026) and weekly auction reporting to 19 September 2026. Field observations are the firm’s own and are not statistics; each was checked against the register or Cotality before use. Listing counts are Cotality’s twelve-month totals, September 2025 against August 2026, for suburbs with a median house value of $2.5 million to $5 million, excluding Manly, Fairlight, Queenscliff and Clontarf. Band sales of $3 million to $5 million exclude Manly, Fairlight and Queenscliff. The register will not show spring contracts in volume until late October.